![]() ![]() Apply adjustments to these estimates, based on the best empirical evidence relevant to the stage of the appraisal. ![]() Estimate the time taken to complete the works.Given that I am a planner, who takes instructions as an expert witness, I will concentrate on the second bullet point. The headline point of Annex 4 describes optimism bias and the systematic tendency to be over-optimistic about key project parameters in relation to: Annex 4, Risk and Uncertainty, includes a section entitled Optimism Bias which helps to explain why engineers, and the construction industry in general, seems to suffer from its optimistic point of view. This report follows The Green Book (2003), Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government prepared on behalf of HM Treasury. Further, that the challenges of delivering the projects are, “compounded by the endemic over-optimism which characterises decisions to commit to projects and the subsequent management of them.” The report sets out that there are many reasons why projects fail to meet expectations, such as poor project management and the impact of external factors beyond the control of those responsible. The foreword advises that: “This report looks at a particularly persistent risk management problem – the difficulties caused for government projects by unrealistic expectations and over-optimism.” Optimism is prevalent in the construction industry, to the extent that the National Audit Office prepared a report (issued in December 2013) entitled Over-optimism in government projects. A quick Google of the word ‘optimism’ provides the definition, “hopefulness and confidence about the future or the success of something”. Misplaced optimism, it seems, is not limited to me and my seasonal purchases but rather to the construction industry as a whole. How did this happen again? How did I lull myself into thinking I had lots of time and how does that lack of time always end up costing me more? The problem with a panic buy, of course, is that they are always expensive. Quite frankly, once again I was kidding myself and it looked as though my good lady wife would be getting the same as last year. I was sitting at my desk on 22 December 2017 thinking, “there’s lots of shopping days left until Christmas…”. David Wileman – Diales Delay Expert addresses the risks of being an optimist, especially when it leads to spending more than originally planned. ![]()
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